Over the years I have found out that many people are intrigued with the $1 million plus homes in the Durango real estate market. How many luxury homes have sold? How big a discount is having to be given to get them sold? Are buyers getting financing or paying cash? Just for fun I thought I would go ahead and look at this year through May 15 and see how it compared to last year through the same date. Here's what I've found.
In 2009 only three homes sold in that timeframe with the sales price of over $1 million in La Plata County. The average days on the market was 250 while the longest days on the market was only slightly more at 283 days. One property sold at 100% of asking price; one sold at 76% of asking price and the third property sold at 84% of asking price. The highest priced sale was $1,275,000 and that home was located on County road 250 (E. Animas Valley Rd.). Of those transactions two were financed and one was for cash. Based on their addresses, none would have been considered resort properties or homes located at the ski area.
In 2010 there have been six luxury homes sold from January 1 through May 15 within La Plata County for over $1 million. The average days on market was 275 days while the longest days on market was 1046 days. That large number skews the average so I will tell you that the median days on market was only 131 days. Three of these sales all happened at the same time with one buyer and they were all properties located on County Road 250. That series of transactions just closed last week. This year some high-end resort property sold. One at the Glacier Club and one at the ski area. Overall these homes sold at 84% of the asking price with the highest percentage of asking price being 93%. The property that sold at Purgatory was a condominium. With the availability of jumbo loans having loosened up quite a bit in the last year, it was pretty interesting to see that four of the six transactions sold for all cash where no financing was necessary.
If you are a regular reader of this blog you're already aware that I like tracking statistics. Our main website, www.BuyDurango.com has an entire section related to statistics and here is a link to it:
Durango Real Estate Market Statistics
Please feel free to give me a call if you have specific questions or have certain types of searches that you would like me to perform that may be of some help to you in your analysis of Durango real estate. We would certainly like to help you get a good handle on the condition of the market so that you can make informed decisions. Team Lorenz prides itself on trying to be very current on the market conditions and Lisa and Nicole certainly have all of the statistics available for them to use with you as well.
Showing posts with label Durango Real Estate Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Durango Real Estate Market. Show all posts
Sunday, May 16, 2010
Friday, January 08, 2010
End of Year Sales Statistics
Talk about a roller coaster ride! I'm not sure I've ever seen any year quite late 2009 before, as it relates to Durango real estate. As everybody knows, the sales volume was down in almost every market around the country. Durango's real estate market followed that trend but was certainly not nearly as bad as many markets which were predominantly foreclosure sales and bank owned properties. The "tide" was down all across the country, and our boat was caught in that tide.
In my blog article at the end of the third quarter I told you I was beginning to feel positive and I'd give you a firmer prediction at year's end as to which way the Durango real estate market is going. Rather than look at numbers on a static basis, I like to look at the trends and see which direction the numbers are moving. That gives me a much better sense of "predicting" the future. I've done a ton of analysis and here are some of the thoughts that I have. At the end of the first six months of 2009, La Plata County residential sales volume was down 45% from last year; at the end of nine months of 2009, the volume was down 37%; and at the end of the year 2009 volume was down only 22% compared to 2008. That shows me that the last half of 2009... in particular the last quarter... was making good headway in catching up to the very slow start to 2009.
In my third-quarter blog article, I discussed absorption rate at length. Remember that that rate is the period of time it would take all active listings to be sold, assuming no additional properties come onto the market based on the current rate of sales. That is, it is a reflection of how many homes are currently for sale and how many homes per month are selling. Generally speaking, a faster absorption rate reflects an improving market. For the first six months of 2009 residential absorption rate for all price categories of $100,000 and above in La Plata County was 3.29 years; at the end of nine months it dropped to 2.68 years and at the end of the year was down to 1.5 years. Again, this is another trend going significantly in the right direction.
The last quarter of the year finally saw the higher-end properties begin to come out of their doldrums. Through the first nine months of '09, 10 homes priced at $1 million and up had sold; by the end of the year 18 of those homes had changed hands. In the $800,000-$1 million price bracket, 7 homes sold during the first nine months but by the end of the year 14 had sold. In the $600,000-$800,000 price bracket, 20 homes had sold in the first nine months but by the end of the year 35 had sold. That clearly is a very good rate of increase in sales volume in those higher-end properties.
Areas that did not show improvement the sales price to list price percentage. Let's say you listed your home for $100,000 and sold it for $97,000. That sales to list price percentage would be 97%. Through the first six months of ‘09, that ratio was 96.8%; by the end of nine months it was 94%; and when the year concluded, it dropped to 93.3%. Pretty clearly sellers were willing to negotiate more in order to get their properties sold. Another measuring stick that I look at is median days on the market. It's a little different than absorption rate in that this simply says for those properties that did sell, how long did it take them to sell. Again, through the first six months, median days on the market was 115 days; by the end of nine months it had risen to 144 days; and by the end of the year it was 158 days.
One of the most significant changes was in the number of units currently available for sale. Again, this is strictly residential, priced at $100,000 and above, and only in La Plata County. Inventory at the end of six months was 1382 units; at the end of nine months it had dropped to 1333 units; but at year's end that number was all the way down to 854 units. That is even lower than at the end of 2008 when the available inventory was 1004 units. That is a very significant number of units that are not currently available and figuring out why they are not is a challenge. Partly, some sellers have clearly become discouraged and decided to simply take their property off the market in hopes of the market coming back. Another part of that slack is taken up because more properties sold in the last quarter of ‘09, thus reducing inventory. And thirdly, I believe some sellers have put their homes on the market as rental properties as we have certainly seen an increase in the number of rental homes available at this time of year.
Next week I will be able to post the spreadsheet for the full year statistics. Remember that on my website, www.BuyDurango.com I have posted previous spreadsheets. Here is a link to that page in my website: Durango Real Estate Statistics.
If you are a seller, then this information should be fairly encouraging to you especially when you realize that there's a lot less competition out there right now. If you are a buyer that has been sitting on the fence, I think most people can see that it's time to get off the fence. In spite of what we hear out of Washington DC, qualifying for a loan can be a challenge today. Our team members here would very much like to help you get connected to a good local lender who can start you in that process. Own qualification takes longer now than it did six months or a year ago. With the first-time home buyer tax credit having been extended as well as the creation of a new tax credit for home buyers that previously owned homes, we feel that those two market segments will have increased activity and thus more competition for a fewer number of properties. With more people chasing less properties, it is basic economics that teaches us that prices should rise in that market segment.
Team Lorenz is here to help you and we certainly look forward to a call from you.
In my blog article at the end of the third quarter I told you I was beginning to feel positive and I'd give you a firmer prediction at year's end as to which way the Durango real estate market is going. Rather than look at numbers on a static basis, I like to look at the trends and see which direction the numbers are moving. That gives me a much better sense of "predicting" the future. I've done a ton of analysis and here are some of the thoughts that I have. At the end of the first six months of 2009, La Plata County residential sales volume was down 45% from last year; at the end of nine months of 2009, the volume was down 37%; and at the end of the year 2009 volume was down only 22% compared to 2008. That shows me that the last half of 2009... in particular the last quarter... was making good headway in catching up to the very slow start to 2009.
In my third-quarter blog article, I discussed absorption rate at length. Remember that that rate is the period of time it would take all active listings to be sold, assuming no additional properties come onto the market based on the current rate of sales. That is, it is a reflection of how many homes are currently for sale and how many homes per month are selling. Generally speaking, a faster absorption rate reflects an improving market. For the first six months of 2009 residential absorption rate for all price categories of $100,000 and above in La Plata County was 3.29 years; at the end of nine months it dropped to 2.68 years and at the end of the year was down to 1.5 years. Again, this is another trend going significantly in the right direction.
The last quarter of the year finally saw the higher-end properties begin to come out of their doldrums. Through the first nine months of '09, 10 homes priced at $1 million and up had sold; by the end of the year 18 of those homes had changed hands. In the $800,000-$1 million price bracket, 7 homes sold during the first nine months but by the end of the year 14 had sold. In the $600,000-$800,000 price bracket, 20 homes had sold in the first nine months but by the end of the year 35 had sold. That clearly is a very good rate of increase in sales volume in those higher-end properties.
Areas that did not show improvement the sales price to list price percentage. Let's say you listed your home for $100,000 and sold it for $97,000. That sales to list price percentage would be 97%. Through the first six months of ‘09, that ratio was 96.8%; by the end of nine months it was 94%; and when the year concluded, it dropped to 93.3%. Pretty clearly sellers were willing to negotiate more in order to get their properties sold. Another measuring stick that I look at is median days on the market. It's a little different than absorption rate in that this simply says for those properties that did sell, how long did it take them to sell. Again, through the first six months, median days on the market was 115 days; by the end of nine months it had risen to 144 days; and by the end of the year it was 158 days.
One of the most significant changes was in the number of units currently available for sale. Again, this is strictly residential, priced at $100,000 and above, and only in La Plata County. Inventory at the end of six months was 1382 units; at the end of nine months it had dropped to 1333 units; but at year's end that number was all the way down to 854 units. That is even lower than at the end of 2008 when the available inventory was 1004 units. That is a very significant number of units that are not currently available and figuring out why they are not is a challenge. Partly, some sellers have clearly become discouraged and decided to simply take their property off the market in hopes of the market coming back. Another part of that slack is taken up because more properties sold in the last quarter of ‘09, thus reducing inventory. And thirdly, I believe some sellers have put their homes on the market as rental properties as we have certainly seen an increase in the number of rental homes available at this time of year.
Next week I will be able to post the spreadsheet for the full year statistics. Remember that on my website, www.BuyDurango.com I have posted previous spreadsheets. Here is a link to that page in my website: Durango Real Estate Statistics.
If you are a seller, then this information should be fairly encouraging to you especially when you realize that there's a lot less competition out there right now. If you are a buyer that has been sitting on the fence, I think most people can see that it's time to get off the fence. In spite of what we hear out of Washington DC, qualifying for a loan can be a challenge today. Our team members here would very much like to help you get connected to a good local lender who can start you in that process. Own qualification takes longer now than it did six months or a year ago. With the first-time home buyer tax credit having been extended as well as the creation of a new tax credit for home buyers that previously owned homes, we feel that those two market segments will have increased activity and thus more competition for a fewer number of properties. With more people chasing less properties, it is basic economics that teaches us that prices should rise in that market segment.
Team Lorenz is here to help you and we certainly look forward to a call from you.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Year-To-Date Comparative Sales Figures
As is my custom, I've compiled a complete analysis of the residential sales data for all Durango real estate (that would be for all of La Plata County) from January 1 through September 30 of this year as well as the same time period in the year 2008. In addition, my analysis breaks down the price brackets by $200,000 increments, which makes it easier to understand it allows you the public to look at your specific price range.
Overall the total residential dollar volume in 2009 versus 2008 has dropped 37.05%. The average residential sales price, however, only declined by 8.2%; while the median sales price declined 10.33%. You can see by these figures that values are holding reasonably well... it's just that the dollar volume is down significantly. Those numbers seem to reinforce our concept that Durango Colorado real estate has been, and is still a good place to invest your money.
The busiest price bracket is from 200,000 of $400,000 where 219 units sold this year compared to 293 last year. That is a decline of 25.26%. The hardest hit price range is the $800,000-$1 million price bracket. That is almost a no man's land with very few buyers closing on properties in that price bracket. Last year 17 homes that sold, this year only seven have sold and their average days on the market this year has risen to 402 days. Somewhat oddly, I would think, in 2009 more homes over $1 million and sold than in 2008; granted it's only one more than last year, but it's the only price bracket where there was an increasing number of units sold.
One of the items that I analyze is where are people buying? Durango in town? Durango rural? Bayfield in town? Or Bayfield rural? Condos at the resort? Per each price bracket, I have the answers to those questions.
My complete Excel spreadsheet...in an easy to view format...for Durango real estate sales analysis is located on my website. Click the following link to take you directly to that spreadsheet: Durango Real Estate Sales Analysis
If you would like to discuss this analysis in more detail or if you are ready to get some help in your search for Durango area real estate, please give us a call and we will be more than happy to take care of your needs. My direct line office number is 970-375-7007.
Overall the total residential dollar volume in 2009 versus 2008 has dropped 37.05%. The average residential sales price, however, only declined by 8.2%; while the median sales price declined 10.33%. You can see by these figures that values are holding reasonably well... it's just that the dollar volume is down significantly. Those numbers seem to reinforce our concept that Durango Colorado real estate has been, and is still a good place to invest your money.
The busiest price bracket is from 200,000 of $400,000 where 219 units sold this year compared to 293 last year. That is a decline of 25.26%. The hardest hit price range is the $800,000-$1 million price bracket. That is almost a no man's land with very few buyers closing on properties in that price bracket. Last year 17 homes that sold, this year only seven have sold and their average days on the market this year has risen to 402 days. Somewhat oddly, I would think, in 2009 more homes over $1 million and sold than in 2008; granted it's only one more than last year, but it's the only price bracket where there was an increasing number of units sold.
One of the items that I analyze is where are people buying? Durango in town? Durango rural? Bayfield in town? Or Bayfield rural? Condos at the resort? Per each price bracket, I have the answers to those questions.
My complete Excel spreadsheet...in an easy to view format...for Durango real estate sales analysis is located on my website. Click the following link to take you directly to that spreadsheet: Durango Real Estate Sales Analysis
If you would like to discuss this analysis in more detail or if you are ready to get some help in your search for Durango area real estate, please give us a call and we will be more than happy to take care of your needs. My direct line office number is 970-375-7007.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Durango Area Land Sales '05 thru '07
Comparative Analysis of Land Sales for 2005, 2006, and 2007
As I've written in previous posts regarding residential sales in La Plata County, 2005 has been considered the banner year and the high benchmark from which to compare other years. I've just completed a very thorough review of: (1) all vacant land sales; (2) in the county; (3) for each of the three years mentioned; (4) for closings that occurred between January 1 and December 15 of each year respectively. My seat-of-the-pants sense of the land market over the last three years is that it has been down significantly. The facts proved that theory to be true, but I did find some interesting little quirks in the market as well.
Let's start with some of the basics. In 2005 there were 473 sales; in 2006 there were 371 sales; and in 2007 there were 245 sales. That represents a drop in the number of units sold of 48.2%. The sales volume however, didn't track in quite the same degree. In 2005 sales volume was $99.5 million; in 2006 the sales volume was $99.9 million; and in 2007 it was only $79.2 million. That is a drop of 20.34% from ’05 through ’07 compared to the 48% drop in number of units sold. The biggest change was in the number of million-dollar plus properties that sold. In the year 2005, there was $20.9 million worth sold; in the year 2006 that number jumped to $22.8 million; and in 2007 that high-end market sold properties worth $28.2 million. Another number that surprised me a little bit, was that the median price actually increased in each of the three years. In 2005 the median price was $128,000; in 2006 the median price jumped to $170,000; and in 2007 it jumped again to $189,900. That represented a 48.36% increase in the median price.
As I've mentioned earlier, the (DOM) number of days on the market property is available is usually a pretty good reflection of the condition of the market. If the days on the market is increasing, that would generally mean the market is slowing down and becoming more of a buyers market. If days on the market is decreasing, that would mean the market is strengthening and would become more of a seller's market. No big surprise here. Average days on the market in the year 2005, was 242 days. Average days on the market in 2006, rose to 261 days. And in the year 2007, it jumped all the way to 317 days. That's an increase in days on the market of 30.9%.
A second market indicator is the “sales to list price ratio”. Just as a reminder, that percentage is computed using the final sales price compared to the last listed price of a property. So if a property was listed at $100,000 and it sold for $96,000, then the sales to list price ratio would be 96%. In a falling market we would expect to see the sales to list price ratio declining and the opposite would be occurring if the market was strengthening. The stats I have accumulated do show a falling market, but not as drastic as I would have expected. Sellers are negotiating more…but not by much. In the year 2005, the ratio was 94.5%. In the year 2006 it dropped a bit to 93.54%. In 2007 it dropped again to 92.03%. That is a 2.64% decline in that ratio; not a hugely significant change but certainly one that would be somewhat reflective of the market conditions.
One of the other indicators that I track is the number of sales that were for all-cash; that is the purchaser did not get a loan using the property as collateral. Some of these people may have used home-equity loans or other property as collateral because as a general rule land loans carry a higher interest rate. Consequently, I put a bit more emphasis on that figure for residential sales than I do for vacant land sales. In the year 2005, 228 transactions sold for cash; in the year 2006 the number dropped to 173 transactions; and in 2007 it dropped to 113; that is less than half the number from 2005. However, the interesting figure to look at is that the number of transactions for cash as a percentage of the total transactions in each of the years has stayed very constant. 48.2% in the year 2005; 46.63% in the year 2006; and 46.12% of all the transactions in the year 2007 were all cash transactions.
While it is very clear the land sales volume is down over the last three years I was a bit surprised to see that the dollar volume actually increased in 2006. The increasing number of days on market is a reflection of fewer and fewer buyers looking for land and not so much an abundance of inventory. To some extent, I believe that is reflective of the fact that you can buy a used home for less per square foot than you can build. This analysis has been pretty much done based on the total land sales for each year with little differentiation paid to various market segments. My study, however, did break down every sale into five different categories based on the sales price. The results of that analysis, together with my Excel spreadsheets will be the subject of my next blog.
Remember, if you like what you are reading in this blog, you can subscribe to it and it will be automatically e-mailed to you. Sign up on the right hand mast of this blog.
As I've written in previous posts regarding residential sales in La Plata County, 2005 has been considered the banner year and the high benchmark from which to compare other years. I've just completed a very thorough review of: (1) all vacant land sales; (2) in the county; (3) for each of the three years mentioned; (4) for closings that occurred between January 1 and December 15 of each year respectively. My seat-of-the-pants sense of the land market over the last three years is that it has been down significantly. The facts proved that theory to be true, but I did find some interesting little quirks in the market as well.
Let's start with some of the basics. In 2005 there were 473 sales; in 2006 there were 371 sales; and in 2007 there were 245 sales. That represents a drop in the number of units sold of 48.2%. The sales volume however, didn't track in quite the same degree. In 2005 sales volume was $99.5 million; in 2006 the sales volume was $99.9 million; and in 2007 it was only $79.2 million. That is a drop of 20.34% from ’05 through ’07 compared to the 48% drop in number of units sold. The biggest change was in the number of million-dollar plus properties that sold. In the year 2005, there was $20.9 million worth sold; in the year 2006 that number jumped to $22.8 million; and in 2007 that high-end market sold properties worth $28.2 million. Another number that surprised me a little bit, was that the median price actually increased in each of the three years. In 2005 the median price was $128,000; in 2006 the median price jumped to $170,000; and in 2007 it jumped again to $189,900. That represented a 48.36% increase in the median price.
As I've mentioned earlier, the (DOM) number of days on the market property is available is usually a pretty good reflection of the condition of the market. If the days on the market is increasing, that would generally mean the market is slowing down and becoming more of a buyers market. If days on the market is decreasing, that would mean the market is strengthening and would become more of a seller's market. No big surprise here. Average days on the market in the year 2005, was 242 days. Average days on the market in 2006, rose to 261 days. And in the year 2007, it jumped all the way to 317 days. That's an increase in days on the market of 30.9%.
A second market indicator is the “sales to list price ratio”. Just as a reminder, that percentage is computed using the final sales price compared to the last listed price of a property. So if a property was listed at $100,000 and it sold for $96,000, then the sales to list price ratio would be 96%. In a falling market we would expect to see the sales to list price ratio declining and the opposite would be occurring if the market was strengthening. The stats I have accumulated do show a falling market, but not as drastic as I would have expected. Sellers are negotiating more…but not by much. In the year 2005, the ratio was 94.5%. In the year 2006 it dropped a bit to 93.54%. In 2007 it dropped again to 92.03%. That is a 2.64% decline in that ratio; not a hugely significant change but certainly one that would be somewhat reflective of the market conditions.
One of the other indicators that I track is the number of sales that were for all-cash; that is the purchaser did not get a loan using the property as collateral. Some of these people may have used home-equity loans or other property as collateral because as a general rule land loans carry a higher interest rate. Consequently, I put a bit more emphasis on that figure for residential sales than I do for vacant land sales. In the year 2005, 228 transactions sold for cash; in the year 2006 the number dropped to 173 transactions; and in 2007 it dropped to 113; that is less than half the number from 2005. However, the interesting figure to look at is that the number of transactions for cash as a percentage of the total transactions in each of the years has stayed very constant. 48.2% in the year 2005; 46.63% in the year 2006; and 46.12% of all the transactions in the year 2007 were all cash transactions.
While it is very clear the land sales volume is down over the last three years I was a bit surprised to see that the dollar volume actually increased in 2006. The increasing number of days on market is a reflection of fewer and fewer buyers looking for land and not so much an abundance of inventory. To some extent, I believe that is reflective of the fact that you can buy a used home for less per square foot than you can build. This analysis has been pretty much done based on the total land sales for each year with little differentiation paid to various market segments. My study, however, did break down every sale into five different categories based on the sales price. The results of that analysis, together with my Excel spreadsheets will be the subject of my next blog.
Remember, if you like what you are reading in this blog, you can subscribe to it and it will be automatically e-mailed to you. Sign up on the right hand mast of this blog.
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